ZEAL Future Enablement Program launched at Ziauddin University

ZEAL Future Enablement Program launched at Ziauddin University to develop critical skills for digital media planning.

Pakistan (Muhammad Yasir) Z2C Limited, a venture accelerator that invests in and launches MarTech start-ups, has taken yet another step towards increasing the quality and quantity of advertising industry talent in Pakistan. Through its Publicis Groupe Delivery (PGD) affiliated export-first digital agency Activ8, the accelerator has partnered with digital agency East River and the media science department of Ziauddin University to launch fast-track courses.

Pakistan’s services industry generates under $2 billion annually in aggregate export revenue, while the academic side of the equation produces roughly 10,000 graduates annually. Across the border, India’s services industry generates over $100 billion annually in aggregate exports, and the academic space produces over 500,000 graduates annually. LinkedIn data clearly reflects that the quality of Indian engineers and marketers is so high that Fortune 500 technology companies set up back offices in the second-most populous country in the world.

According to keynotes delivered by executives of Careem and Systems Limited, the low-quality of Pakistani graduates stems from a disconnect between what the market wants and how academics choose to teach students. This is particularly reflective in a grading system around memorization instead of on the demonstration of applicable skills and critical thinking.

To solve the disconnect between what the market wants and what universities should teach, partnerships between leading companies and institutions is the need of the hour. One such partnership has taken place this weekend at the Ziauddin University.

Drawing from the industry-leading management trainee program at Brainchild, the 12-week innovative program aims to create a pool of talented digital resources at the management or project trainee level.

“We are pleased to partner with East River Digital, Z2C Limited, and Activ8 to provide our students with an opportunity to gain hands-on experience and develop critical skills in digital media; we believe that this program will equip the next generation of digital leaders with the knowledge and skills they need to succeed in their careers,” said Dr. Nida Hussain, Pro-chancellor of Ziauddin University.

The first batch of the ZEAL Future Enablement Program at Ziauddin University will occur four times in 2023 and will enroll up to 50 participants in each cohort to develop critical skills in digital media planning, social media, Google Ads, business communication, branding, and search engine optimization.

“Launching a training academy has been a passion project of mine because it can change the destiny of our country,” said Faizan S. Syed, the CEO of East River. “By training and enabling our talent to serve global markets, we create a new set of digital marketing resources that can serve the world from Pakistan and bring much-needed foreign investment to this country.”

The ZEAL program will be delivered by expert trainers from East River, Z2C Limited, and Activ8, with additional support from Ziauddin University. Classes will be conducted every Saturday till 19th May 2023 at both Ziauddin University Clifton and North sites.

“As technology pushes deeper into the business, the business pushes deeper into technology,” said Raihan Merchant, CEO of Z2C Limited, at the launch ceremony of the ZEAL Future Enablement Program. “All businesses and executives need to be upskilled in digital marketing and creative strategy in order to improve the effectiveness of customer lifetime value initiatives. To take Pakistan to the next level, we need to increase the quality and quantity of talent that will shift the country to a services industry model.”

As the advertising expenditure within Pakistan declines steadily year-on-year, advertising agencies have begun to pivot towards an expert model for their services. This has included training existing talent to work on global brands in the MENA and APAC region, through large consultancies and advertising agencies. In Pakistan, Activ8 is one such example, serving advertisers in the MENA region through it’s relationship with the Publicis Groupe. The exposure to regional megabrands and their campaigns represents tremendous learning opportunities and growth for work placement abroad.

“Executives worldwide need training on platforms and tools that make their roles easier,” said Saadi Gouse, the director of digital transformation at Publicis Groupe in Pakistan. “The data-literate executive will replace the executive that refuses to upskill & adapt. The most significant disruption data and AI create is eliminating the walls between technology and business. They are becoming indistinguishable. Companies must adapt by making technical and non-technical roles indistinguishable.”

Educate a Girl is an initiative launched by LADIESFUND

Pakistan (Muhammad Yasir)

Educate a Girl is an initiative launched by LADIESFUND, a women-led organization dedicated to promoting female entrepreneurship and education in Pakistan.

The program provides underprivileged girls throughout Pakistan with access to quality education, mentorship, and career guidance. Thanks to the leadership of its president, Tara Uzra Dawood, and team, more than 6,000 young women have been trained vocationally for jobs. It’s most recent training and certification was of 100 girls in “BRAND DEVELOPMENT, MARKETING & ADVERTISING” and conducted by Rizwan Ahmad Malik, founder of RG Blue Communications. Tara Uzra Dawood is a prominent philanthropist, entrepreneur, and advocate for women’s rights and education. She founded LADIESFUND with the mission of empowering women in Pakistan by promoting entrepreneurship and education. The Educate a Girl initiative is a key component of this mission, as it helps to provide young girls from underprivileged communities with the resources and support they need to achieve their full potential.

Tara’s leadership has been essential in ensuring the success of the Educate a Girl initiative. She has been able to leverage her expertise and network to build support for the program and establish partnerships with other organizations and individuals who share her vision. Through her leadership and advocacy, Tara has helped to break down the barriers that prevent girls in Karachi from accessing education and is creating a more inclusive and equitable society.

Rizwan Ahmad Malik is a branding, marketing, product placement, and advertising expert who has worked with LADIESFUND to develop a marketing campaign that would raise awareness and generate support for the Educate a Girl initiative. Through his efforts, Rizwan was able to secure placements for the campaign in high-profile publications and websites, generating significant interest and support for the program. The impact of the Educate a Girl initiative is far-reaching and is helping to build a better future for girls in Karachi and Pakistan as a whole.

The program provides girls with access to quality education, mentorship, and career guidance, which they would not otherwise have had. By educating young girls, the initiative is creating a pipeline of talented and empowered women who can contribute to the social and economic progress of Pakistan.

The success of the Educate a Girl initiative is a testament to the leadership and vision of Tara Uzra Dawood. Through her passion for education and advocacy for women’s rights, Tara has been able to create real change in the lives of young Pakistani girls. Her work with LADIESFUND is an inspiration to others and serves as a model for how women’s empowerment and education can be achieved in Pakistan.

The initiative is also an example of how effective marketing and advertising can be used to promote social causes and create positive change.

The success of the Educate a Girl initiative is not only a victory for the girls who benefit from the program but also for the broader community in Pakistan. By providing girls with access to education and empowering them to pursue their dreams, the initiative is creating a more equitable and prosperous society.

ACCA hosts high-level conference in Karachi

Karachi (Muhammad Yasir)

The Karachi session of ACCA Pakistan Leadership Conversation (PLC) 2023 provided opportunity to country’s senior business leaders and influencers to engage in future-focused discussions and offer businesses and the government with a forward-thinking action plan on how to weather the current economic headwinds and leverage new opportunities in emerging sectors.

Consistent with this year’s event theme ‘Shaping the future in uncertain times: Learn. Adapt. Thrive.’, the session focused on key policy reforms and business initiatives to create a conducive environment for the emerging sectors to thrive, help the country deal with its current economic challenges and embark on a journey to sustainable, inclusive growth.

Focusing on the central role of accountancy profession, ACCA’s global president, Joseph Owolabi, in his keynote address emphasised:

 

‘As society’s expectations shift with speed and intensity, the challenges that lie ahead for business, governments and policymakers are complex. But with skills, knowledge, and experience that transcend sectors and borders, the accountancy profession is uniquely placed to help drive the change people want to see.’

 

Syed Faisal Ali Subzwari, Federal Minister for Maritime Affairs, in his address focused on environment, climate change and green growth.

 

Sima Kamil, Deputy Governor, State Bank of Pakistan, also spoke at the event and delivered an insightful talk on the topic ‘Building economic resilience in uncertain times’.

 

Muhammad Aurangzeb, President and CEO, HBL, delivered an insightful keynote presenting a business case for the adoption of ESG framework and explained how it enables businesses to achieve sustainable growth: attract investments, earn customer trust, drive financial performance and make business operations more efficient.

 

Notable conversation leaders who contributed with their knowledge and insights included Shaista Ayesha, CEO, SEED Ventures, Sadia Dada, Chief Marketing and Communications Officer, K Electric, Assad Hameed Khan, Head of ACCA Pakistan, Eqan Ali Khan, GM Strategy, Business Development & Innovation, Lucky Core Industries Limited, Mehvish Waliany, COO, AlKaram Studio, Muhammad Shahzad, Finance Director and ESG Ambition Lead, Unilever Pakistan, Nazish Shekha, Senior Research Associate, CERB, Rana Nadeem, Partner, KPMG, Sarwat Ahson, Executive Director, CFA Society Pakistan, Naureen Hayat, Co-Founder & CEO, Tez Financial Services, Nasha Tengra, Senior Manager Consulting, Digital, Data, Strategy & Fintech, A F Ferguson & Co, Azfer Naseem, CEO-Alpha Capital (Pvt) Ltd, Muhammad Shamoon Tariq, Founder/CEO, Mahaana Wealth, Muhammad Shoaib, CEO, Al-Meezan Investment Management, Shahzad Shahid, Group CEO, TPS Worldwide, and Shaham Ahmed, Honorary Secretary, ICMA Pakistan

The aim of this annual conference by ACCA is to develop a meaningful framework for growth, facilitate ideation, and shape forward-thinking policy choices and business opportunities, focusing on high-impact actions to contribute to the country’s progress. The leaders will convene for finale edition on 23 February in Lahore.

Seed Ventures joined as co-organisers for this year’s edition. Bank Islami and The Coca-Cola Company were the Strategic Partners. Platinum Partners included SKANS School of Accountancy, U Microfinance Bank, and The Millennium Universal College. Telenor Group Adroit Accountax/ Obox Accounting, National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited, National Disaster Risk Management Fund, Tabani’s School of Accountancy, PAC Group of Colleges and Mirchawala’s Hub of Accountancy supported as Gold Partners. TCM – The Centrum Media joined as Outreach Partner and KPMG and Nutshell Group were the Knowledge Partners.

The event is also supported by the Pakistan Business Council (PBC), Pakistan Stock Exchange, Special Technology Zones Authority, Pakistan Software Houses Association, KP Board of Investment and Trade, The Centre of Excellence in Responsible Business (PBC), ICMA Pakistan, National Incubation Center, Universal Service Fund, Punjab Board of Investment & Trade, Punjab Information Technology Board, Central Power Purchasing Agency, and the CFA Society Pakistan.

ACCA is the world’s leading body for professional accountants, with more than 241,000 fully qualified members and 542,000 future members worldwide. It uses its unrivalled connections across the globe to connect people with fulfilling careers, organizations with the best finance talent, and economies with the ingredients for growth.

 

ACCA Pakistan Leadership Conversation (PLC) 2023 kicks off, economic recovery in focus

Pakistan (Muhammad Yasir)

The 2023 edition of ACCA Pakistan Leadership Conversation (PLC) kicked off with its inaugural session in Islamabad featuring an impressive line-up of country’s top thought leaders.

With Pakistan’s challenging economic situation in focus, this year’s event theme is ‘Shaping the future in uncertain times: Learn. Adapt. Thrive.’. A number of panel discussions and keynotes were part of the programme in Islamabad’s session addressing today’s key business and economic challenges and proposed solutions for climate action, effective public financial management, development of future-ready talent, and achieving business resilience and economic growth.

ACCA’s head of Pakistan, Assad Hameed Khan, initiated the conversation with his welcome address emphasising on the role of professional accountants in nation building.

 

The Country Head of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in Pakistan, Zeeshan Sheikh, also shared his views on ‘Investment Opportunities for Climate Action’. Muhammad Farooq, Senior Joint Secretary (Development) at the Ministry of Climate Change, spoke on the topic ‘National Adaptation Plan: Building Resilience and Reducing Vulnerabilities’ aimed at integrating businesses and government’s efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change.

 

Notable conversation leaders who deliberated at the conference included Bilal Anwar, CEO, NDRMF, Hassan Daud Butt, Ex-CEO, KPBoIT, Ayla Majid, ACCA’s global Vice President, Abid Qayyum Suleri, Executive Director, SDPI, Shehzad Ahmed Malik, President, ICMA Pakistan, Alexa Greenwald, Chief Strategy Officer, TCM, Alia Zafar, Group Head of HR, BoP, Faisal Mushtaq, CEO, TMUC, Ghazanfar Azzam, President and CEO, Mobilink Microfinance Bank, Samia Qamar, Director and Country Lead (People) at S&P Global, and Zuhair Khaliq, Founder and General Partner, TeamUp Ventures.

The aim of the conference is to develop a meaningful framework for growth, facilitate ideation, and shape forward-thinking policy choices and business opportunities, focusing on high-impact actions to contribute to the country’s progress. The leaders will convene again on 22 February in Karachi and then on 23 February in Lahore.

Seed Ventures joined ACCA as this year’s co-organisers. Bank Islami and The Coca-Cola Company were the Strategic Partners. Platinum Partners included SKANS School of Accountancy, U Microfinance Bank, and The Millennium Universal College. Telenor Group Adroit Accountax/ Obox Accounting, National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited, National Disaster Risk Management Fund, Tabani’s School of Accountancy, PAC Group of Colleges and Mirchawala’s Hub of Accountancy supported as Gold Partners. TCM – The Centrum Media joined as Outreach Partner and KPMG and Nutshell Group were the Knowledge Partners.

The event is also supported by the Pakistan Business Council (PBC), Pakistan Stock Exchange, Special Technology Zones Authority, Pakistan Software Houses Association, KP Board of Investment and Trade, The Centre of Excellence in Responsible Business (PBC), ICMA Pakistan, National Incubation Center, Universal Service Fund, Punjab Board of Investment & Trade, Punjab Information Technology Board, Central Power Purchasing Agency, and the CFA Society Pakistan.

ACCA is the world’s leading body for professional accountants, with more than 241,000 fully qualified members and 542,000 future members worldwide. It uses its unrivalled connections across the globe to connect people with fulfilling careers, organizations with the best finance talent, and economies with the ingredients for growth.

 

Lahore International Conference on Culture commenced at Kinnaird College

Lahore (Muhammad Yasir)

The Lahore International Conference on Culture commenced at Kinnaird center for Learning and Cultural Development, Kinnaird College Lahore.The conference aims to explore the challenges and opportunities of building inclusive and resilient multicultural cities in the context of urban governance, cultural entrepreneurship, interfaith harmony, and education for sustainable development.


Chair Organizing Committee Mr Rizwan Anwar Shed the Light on the themes of the Conference That this conference is designed to bring together policymakers, urban planners, scholars, community leaders, educators, and representatives from cultural organizations and the private sector to exchange ideas and knowledge on the challenges facing multicultural cities and to identify best practices and strategies for promoting inclusiveness and resilience.

The conference is featuring keynote speeches, panel discussions, interactive workshops, and round table discussions by 15 International delegates from Europe, USA, South Asia , Australia, Africa , Gulf and Latin America. The program include presentations by experts in the field, as well as opportunities for attendees to share their own experiences and perspectives. The conference will cover topics such as multiculturalism and urban governance, cultural entrepreneurship and economic development, interfaith harmony and social cohesion, education for sustainable development in multicultural cities, and the impact of COVID-19 on multicultural cities.


Former Minsiter for Higher Education said in his Address that Dr. Rukhsana David, the Principal of Kinnaird College for Women deserves an appreciation for her tireless efforts in promoting multiculturalism and creativity through education.Under her leadership, Kinnaird has become a leading institution in promoting the arts and culture in Pakistan, providing a platform for aspiring artists and creative thinkers to explore their talents and make a positive impact on society.

Dr Rukhsana David principal of Kinnaird thanked the International delegates and said that Multiculturalism is a key factor in the success of the creative economy. When people from different backgrounds come together, they bring a variety of experiences and perspectives that can inspire new and exciting ideas. This is particularly true in creative fields, where fresh perspectives and unconventional approaches are often valued.

Co Chair Organizing Committee Ms Maha jamil said that we need to strongly advocate for promoting multiculturalism and creativity in Pakistan. She said further added that intersection of multiculturalism and the creative economy is a powerful force for positive change. By embracing diversity and promoting creativity, we can build a more inclusive and sustainable economy that benefits us all. The Lahore International Conference on Culture is committed to promoting diversity, cultural exchange, and intercultural understanding, and this event is a unique opportunity for attendees to learn from experts, network with like-minded individuals, and contribute to the development of inclusive and resilient multicultural cities.

ACCA Talent Trends survey reveals accountancy talent crunch in Pakistan

Pakistan (Muhammad Yasir)

The world of work has gone through the biggest transformation in a generation and a new era has begun. In Pakistan 55%of finance professionals expect to move to roles in the next 12 months, and a further 26% over the next two years.

In one of the largest ever studies across the accountancy profession, ACCA’s (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) new annual Global Talent Trends Survey 2023 provides a unique and vital view of how people feel about working in the profession right now.

Over 8,000 professional accountants from 148 countries, including Pakistan, were asked about the concerns they held around work in the future as well as aspirations for their careers. The survey also assessed key workplace issues such as employee engagement, wellbeing, and attitudes to technology adoption.

The research highlights a talent crunch for employers as they struggle to retain staff with big career mobility ambitions and an eye on their next role. Meanwhile the biggest worries for employees in Pakistan are inflation, wellbeing, career opportunities and the risk of a global economic downturn.

At a time of significant workforce change, and a challenging global economic climate, the survey indicates that a career in accountancy remains a smart choice for those seeking long-term career prospects and possibilities to continually acquire new skills. The opportunity to acquire a professional qualification which affords cross-sectoral and international mobility further adds to the perception that choosing accountancy leads to a career with choices and flexibility.

Hybrid working is very much a ‘work in progress’ in Pakistan with 75% of respondents citing they are working back in the office full time. Inclusion measures score well in Pakistan with 70% feeling their organisation culture is inclusive, compared to a global average of 68%.

Jamie Lyon, Head of Skills, Sectors and Technology at ACCA said: ‘Employers are facing a potential talent crunch, adapting and experimenting with new ways of working across the workforce. Career development and remuneration are the top two attraction factors to an organisation, yet they’re also the two areas which have most influence on employees’ decisions to leave.’

Assad Hameed Khan, head of ACCA Pakistan said: ‘Attracting the next generation of talent to Pakistan’s accountancy profession is vital to a healthy economy. This survey ensures the voices of those studying and working in the profession are heard, and that the profession helps create a working environment where today’s professionals thrive and where tomorrow’s talent wants to be.’

The full report can be accessed at www.accaglobal.com/talenttrends2023

 

Ceremony to pay tribute to late SM Muneer to raise funds for schooling of 10,000 children from poor families

Lahore (Muhammad Yasir)

Lahore A ceremony is being organized in Lahore on February 12 to pay tribute to the late noted industrialist of Pakistan, SM Muneer, for showing unwavering lifelong commitment to several noble charitable causes in the country. The non-profit, Green Crescent Trust (GCT), and noted businessman and APTMA Patron-in-Chief, Dr Gohar Ejaz, have joined hands to jointly organize the event. Punjab Governor, Muhammad Baligh Ur Rehman, and provincial Industries Minister, SM Taneer, will grace the event as Chief Guest and Guest of Honor.

The ceremony will be attended by noted businessmen, industrialists, concerned philanthropists, and donors who support noteworthy charitable initiatives in the country. On the occasion, funds will be raised for the education of at least 10,000 children belonging to the destitute families in the country. These children are enrolled in the charitable schools of the GCT in the underprivileged and remote parts of the country. The GCT has been running a network of 160 charitable schools with an enrolment of 30,900 children from less-deprived areas.

GCT, CEO, Zahid Saeed said that the late SM Muneer was one of the leading patrons of the drive of his charity to provide quality school education to the children of the backward areas. He said the GCT would carry forward the mission of the late leading industrialist and philanthropist by increasing both the number of charitable schools and enrolment of the children from underprivileged areas in them.

He said the GCT had the aim to increase the number of its charitable schools to 250 with an enrolment of 100,000 out-of-school children till 2025. More such fundraisers will soon be organized in Sailkot, Faisalabad, and Islamabad to support the same charitable enrolment drive.

Renowned TV actor, Adnan Siddiqui, and GCT Trustee Abrar Ahmed will also attend the ceremony to show their commitment to the cause of enrolling out-of-school children.

Shan Foods Collaborates with Textile Institute of Pakistan to Provide Skill-Based Education

Karachi (Muhammad Yasir) Shan Foods, being one of the leading food companies in Pakistan, has taken a strong step towards educating the youth by joining hands with the Textile Institute of Pakistan (TIP). This is the second time that the company has taken this initiative to grant scholarships for the financially struggling students. In addition to being one of Pakistan’s top institutions of Art & Design, TIP is a non-profit organization that strives to provide students the access to both skilled and non-skilled education to become well-rounded and successful citizens. Students who apply to the Textile Institute of Pakistan, clear their exams, and demonstrate promise but are not able to continue due to financial restraints are provided scholarships to pursue a career through both professional and industrial-related knowledge, which help them land successful jobs after they have graduated from the institution. In these dire and uncertain times where the cost of living is increasing day by day and jobs are sparsely available, now more than ever before, this initiative taken by Shan Foods and TIP will bring hope and help to many citizens. Shan Foods has always worked for the betterment of society, the well-being, and the education of the nation and they will continue to do so in the future by expanding their domain and resources.

Children address the issue of Child Labour in agriculture in an art exhibition in Multan

Student artists of Bahawalpur and Multan presented thematic artworks highlighting the menace of Child Labor.

Pakistan (Muhammad Yasir)

Child labor in agriculture is a serious issue in Pakistan. According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), over 10 million children in Pakistan are engaged in child labor, with a significant portion of them working in the agriculture sector.

The Little Art in collaboration with Pakistan Workers’ Federation hosted an art exhibition of child art on child labour in agriculture in Multan. The exhibition was held on 1 Feb and was attended by Faisal Iqbal, National Project Coordinator, International Labour Organisation, Rana Jamshed Farooq, Director Labour Department Multan, Malik Mukhtar Awan, Pakistan Worker’s Federation, Umair Mushtaq, Senior Manager The Little Art and Saleem Qaiser, Director Multan Arts Council.

Children were invited from all over the country to create art works on child labour. In Multan and Bahawalpur, The Little Art led workshops with teachers on working with children through art and how to engage them understanding the issue of child labour. In response child crated artworks that we on display in the exhibition.

The project is support by ILO’s Eliminating Child Labour and Forced Labour in the Cotton, Textile and Garment Value Chains and is co-funded by the EU.

Speaking at the occasion, the guests shared the following;

Saleem Qaiser, Director Multan Arts Council
“We are excited to host the child art exhibtion for the first time in Multan. It was great to see how the children from government schools of Multan and Bahawalpur created wonderful works on art and participated in the exhibition.”

Rana Jamshed, Director Labour Department Multan
Malik Mukhtar Awan, Pakistan Worker’s Federation
“We are excited that through this project we are able to work in Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan to train teachers on using arts with children to educate them and communities on child labour. We are also supporting schools with art materials so all children can participate and benefit from the project.”

Faisal Iqbal, National Project Coordinator, International Labour Organisation
” I am thankful to PWF and The Little Art for undertaking this grassroots level work with innovative approach through arts. It is great to see children expressing creatively through arts. These are some of the most disadvantaged children but crucial part of making a long term sustainable change on the issue of child labour in our communities. I am also thankful to Multan Arts Council for hosting this wonderful exhibtion in the art gallery.”

Umair Mushtaq, Senior Manager, The Little Art
“It is a privilege of us to work in this project and engage children from government schools and small private schools as well and communities to express themselves through art on the issue of child labour that is pertinent and needs our attention. Over the past 15 years, our agenda has been to engage children in dialogue on issue that affect them as a matter of their fundamental right.”  

Children working in agriculture face various forms of exploitation, including long working hours, hazardous work conditions, and low pay. The problem is exacerbated by poverty and limited access to education, which makes it difficult for families to keep their children out of work. The Pakistani government has taken steps to address the issue by enacting laws that prohibit child labor and promoting education. This project tends to raise awareness on the issue among teachers, schools and community.

Latest economic conditions survey from ACCA and IMA paints a picture of a steady but weak global economy

Lahore  (Nut Desk) The Q4 Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) shows signs of steadying, however, many indicators remain weaker than a year ago. The good news is that the GECS Confidence Index bounced slightly for the second consecutive quarter, perhaps reflecting hopes that the worst of the central bank tightening might soon be over and that China might successfully relax its zero-COVID restrictions.

Even so, the Confidence Index remains below its median reading for the period since 2012. There is not much positive news from the other three economic indicators – new orders, capital expenditure (CapEx), and employment. CapEx picked up marginally but remains below the median of the same period; new orders and employment showed a further modest deterioration.

Taken as a whole, the results are consistent with a subdued macro-economic outlook. But the good news is that they do not appear yet to be at levels consistent with an outright global recession in 2023 – even though this is the base case scenario for many economic forecasters.

A good cross-check is provided by the two GECS “Fear” indices, which reflect respondents’ concerns that customers and/or suppliers may go out of business. Reassuringly, these were little changed from the 2022 Q3 survey, despite the sharp rise in borrowing costs and the prospect of negative corporate-earnings growth in 2023.

Assad Hameed Khan, head of ACCA Pakistan, said: “What stands out is the improvement in confidence in developed countries – both Western Europe and North America. The improvement in confidence probably reflects hopes that the Russia–Ukraine situation can be contained, and that there will be sufficient natural gas to see Europe through what now looks increasingly likely to be a mild winter. Looking to the weaker emerging markets (especially Pakistan) however, 2023 could still prove to be a challenging time as reflected in the growing sovereign credit concerns and request to International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance. Moreover, the central bank remains under pressure for continued higher interest rates, monetary tightening and foreign exchange transaction restrictions (further slowing growth).”

Loreal Jiles, vice president of research and thought leadership at IMA, said: “Global confidence has edged up for the second consecutive quarter as cost concerns have eased and with worries about accessing finance and securing prompt payment having not gotten any worse.

“This is something of a surprise given the global rapid tightening of monetary policy by the world’s central banks. The past 12 months have seen the most aggressive tightening of policy in more than 40 years, in pace, scale and breadth. It is strange that this has not yet had a material impact on financing conditions and corporate cash flows. But monetary policy works with long and variable lags, which suggests that this may become more of a problem later in 2023.”

The global economy faces three major uncertainties.

First, have central banks overdone or underdone the amount of tightening that they have imposed?

Second, can China engineer a smooth exit from zero-COVID without additional lockdowns?

And third, will wage pressures ease without a major weakening of the employment market?

One of the unresolved questions from the COVID crisis is whether the combination of early retirement, prolonged ill health, and the move to hybrid working has profoundly altered the balance of power between employers and employees. These changed employment-market dynamics may make it harder for central banks to bring core inflation back to their 2% targets.

The answer to each of these questions will become much clearer as 2023 progresses.

 

Read the full GECS report